Will Bitcoin follow the rebounding US market? Weekly Macro Update

Slowly but surely – Last week, Blackrock announced that its customers will be able to buy cryptocurrencies through the Coinbase platform. After several months of decline, Coinbase is therefore changing momentum and starting to rise again. This announcement shows that institutions are finding a interest in the cryptocurrency market and the adoption continues. the Bitcoinit evolves slowly above $23,000. US stocks continue to climb as the geopolitical situation becomes tense. Despite the recent rebound, risky assets remain in a downtrend. Is the current rebound over or have we found a market low for risky assets? Let’s look at it in The Weekly Macro Update.

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Bitcoin hangs around $24,500

After a nice bounce allowing the price to climb almost 40%the Bitcoin hangs under $24,500 :

Price of Bitcoin against the dollar (3D)

The situation remains similar to last week. In fact, the course has changed dynamic in this unit of time, but it remains stuck below the downtrendline. While we thought we had reintegrated the range between $22,300 and $19,300, Bitcoin managed to rebound. He confirms the out of range and support to $22,300. For buyers, the next target is to $28,500. It’s about a resistance important which should slow down the course in the event of continuation of the rebound.

the momentum is always bearish. The RSI is in contact with its bearish trendline and the stochastic is found below the downtrendline. The momentum is always febrile, sellers could quickly regain control of the price. On the other hand, if the RSI trendline gives way, we could find Bitcoin at $28,500.

Risk off: Gold continues to rebound and the dollar stagnates

Gold Rebounds, But Price Remains Fragile

The gold is in a tidy Between $1,690 and $1,970 for more than two years. Currently, it continues to bounce after touching support at $1,690. The rebound remains brittlebecause it is a structure in “ V-bottom » :

Gold rebounded 6% from the low at $1,690.
Price of gold against the dollar (1D)

Gold is approaching bearish trendline (Brown). This one could dismiss course in the coming days. This would allow the price to be able to structure a “W” market low, much more robust than the current “V bottom”. For buyers, it is absolutely necessary hold the low at $1,690.

The momentum is again bullish, because the stochastic has exited its contraction period. There is often volatility following a momentum contraction.

It is interesting to watch the price of gold against Bitcoin. This allows you to know if the capital is going to risky assets (Bitcoin, S&P 500, etc.) or to safe-haven assets like gold:

Gold has been outperforming Bitcoin for a few months.
Price of gold against bitcoin

The price was in a range and the resolution was bullish. This resolution is in favor of safe-haven assets and we can clearly see that gold has been outperforming Bitcoin for the past few months. The phases of bull markets (bullrun) are marked by a large outperformance of Bitcoin against gold. We are far from it at the moment.

The dynamics of this pair is bullish and it would have to change dynamics in the weeks and months to come. The price could return to the level of the resistance that has become supportwhich also corresponds to the location of the bullish trendline. As long as the price is moving above the range and above the bullish trendline, there is not much to look forward to for Bitcoin..

RSI momentum is still bullish and touch the bullish trendline. If the trendline holds, the rise in the pair should continue. For now, gold seems well on the upside against bitcoin.

Despite the decline, the dollar remains bullish

After falling from the high found on July 14, the dollar is in a phase of stagnation around 106 dots. Despite everything, the dollar remains strong :

The price of the dollar remains bullish despite the recent fall.
Dollar index chart (3D)

The dollar remains bullish, as the price respects the Dow theory with bottoms and rising tops. The top found on July 14 is a fragile top, because it is a “V top”. Moreover, the momentum remains bullish and could rebound at the level of the bullish trendline in the coming days. We must remain vigilant, because as long as the dollar is strong, risky assets will struggle to perform.

Sellers need to push to change the momentum and turn this “V top” into a double top. Bitcoin and US equities remain fragile as safe-haven assets remain strong.

US equities are slowing down: end of the rise or just a break?

In a period that remains complicated geopolitically and economically, US equities continue to to climb. However, the price slowed to the level of resistors important.

The S&P 500 stalls at $4,165

In the previous edition, we talked about the possibility of scoring pause in the short term after a nice rebound. For the moment, the S&P 500 is unable to bend the resistance :

The S&P 500 is stuck at $4,165.
Price of the S&P 500 against the dollar (3D)

On the rebound, the S&P 500 managed to change dynamics and to bend the resistance to $3,900. For the moment, the price is blocked at $4,165. It’s about a dual resistancebecause there is also the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) located at $4,086. Theoretically, the first stop is supposed to reject the course in a trend bearish. Nevertheless, if the buyers manage to break the resistance, the price could end up at the level of the shorts reload area located between $4,365 and $4,560.

The momentum is now bullish and succeeded in break the bearish trendline in this unit of time. According to the momentum, the movement of rise can continue.

Coinbase bullish again after several months of decline

Last week, the price jumped following an important news: customers of Blackrock will be able to buy cryptocurrencies via Coinbase. For its part, the Ark Invest investment fund, headed by the emblematic Cathie Wood, has probably sold the bottom after buying the top of the market. Indeed, the investment fund sold shares on July 26 when the price was around $50.

Coinbase is changing momentum after several months of decline.
Coinbase price against the dollar (1D)

The bearish trendline initiated in early November 2021 finally sold and the course has changed dynamics. The momentum is now bullish from the fence above $84. For the moment, the price is blocked at the level of the first stop at $104. It is not impossible for the price to come back below $87 to fill the gap caused by the announcement.

The momentum has come out of its contraction and seems confirm dynamic change of the asset. Buyers have their hands on the movement.

NASDAQ attempts to break resistance at $13,000

the NASDAQ tries to break the resistance and the bearish trendline.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

The NASDAQ is still febrile as long as the course is located below the downtrendline. Resistance might give way, but the bearish trendline holds. If the trendline reject the course, it is not impossible to see the NASDAQ again at $12,200. On the other hand, if the trendline gives way, the price could move towards the next resistance at $14,000 then $15,000.

Momentum has broken the bearish trendline, momentum is bullish. Buyers could take advantage of this to bring the price towards the next resistance.

Safe-haven assets are still strong, especially the dollar. The dollar is still trending up and while it is, risky assets like Bitcoin or the S&P 500 will struggle to perform. Bitcoin stalls at $24,500, buyers still need to show strength to regain resistance at $28,500. the Bitcoin will probably follow the US market. This is resilient in a complex economic and geopolitical context and let’s hope this continues in the weeks to come.

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