Since Elon Musk presented the Tesla Semi at the end of 2017, it was the subject of a real buzz. For now, the electric truck is still months away from reaching buyers, who are now expecting a 2023 debut. to make diesel-powered trucks obsolete in terms of performance and economy.
On this last point, some data has come to light which affirms that, in the sole comparison of the cost of fuel and energy, a Tesla Semi can be over 83% cheaper than a diesel truck. The figure is brutal and, if true, it will be a game-changer for the transport sector. But is this really the case?
Recently, a Twitter user called Alex Gayer shared a cost comparison between the fuel consumption of a conventional diesel-powered truck and a Tesla Semi. According to his calculations, to complete a 200-mile trip, the electric truck would only need a fraction of the budget of its counterpart.
Specifically, the internal combustion engine vehicle would need about 34 gallons of diesel nearly 127 liters to cover the trip. On average, it can travel about 9.5 kilometers on a gallon. And given that the price per gallon of diesel on the highways is currently $4.99, according to the US Energy Information Administration, the calculation would result in a cost of 1.5 million euros. $169.76 fuel to go the 200 miles..
In analyzing the case of the Tesla Semi, Mr. Gayer took as a reference the consumption announced by the manufacturer, namely “less than 2 kWh per kilometer”, and rounded it, for practical reasons, to 2 kWh. Thus, to cover a 200 mile trip, 400 kWh would need to be used, which, multiplied by a price of 7 cents per kilowatt hour, would require 400 kWh. would only cost $28 to cover the distance..
200 miles * 2kWh per mile = 400 kWh consumed.
400 kWh consumed * $0.07 per kWh = $28.00 fuel charge for this delivery. That’s about 14 cents per kilometer.
In summary :
Cost of diesel to haul cargo 200 miles = $169.76.
Electricity cost to carry cargo 200 miles = $28.00.
200 miles * 2kWh per mile = 400 kWh consumed.
400 kWh consumed * $0.07 per kWh = $28.00 fuel cost for this delivery. This is about 14 cents per mile.In summary:
Diesel cost to move freight 200 miles = $169.76
Electric cost to move freight 200 miles = $28.00— Al≡x Gay≡r (@alex_gayer) August 11, 2022
According to their calculations, the Tesla Semi could therefore make the trip for only 16.5% of the amount a diesel truck would have to spend. It’s crazy, no doubt. But the comparison isn’t quite realistic, and here’s why.
Tesla Semi: put to the test of price and fuel consumption
The big question is why a price of 7 cents per kilowatt hour was taken as a benchmark. And the answer is simple: because it’s the one that Elon Musk mentioned during the presentation of the Tesla Semi when making a comparison with the consumption of a conventional truck. The problem is that this event took place in November 2017that is, almost five years ago.
The comparison between the Tesla Semi and a diesel truck, in 2017. Photo: capture YouTube.
Thus, Mr. Gayer compares the consumption of a diesel truck with the prices per gallon of August 2022, compared to the consumption of the electric truck based on a price per kilowatt hour promised almost five years ago. The author of the analysis even mentions that Tesla “MAY establish an energy cost of 7 cents per kWh. » With the deployment of the new Megachargers for the Tesla Semi, as well as Megapacks and on-site solar generation.
But with the time that has passed since this price was made public, is it still correct to take it as a reference? Let’s not forget that the United States is experiencing high levels of inflation, which has recently been between 8.5 and 9.1% year-on-year. It is therefore logical that the target of 7 cents per kilowatt hour has already been exceeded. Also, when Elon Musk unveiled the Tesla Semi and compared its cost per mile to a truck with an internal combustion engine, the benchmark price for a gallon of diesel was $2.50 that is, half of what it is today.
The comparison would perhaps be fairer if we took the price per kilowatt hour currently charged by the On compressors Tesla Superchargers in the United States. It should be mentioned that today this figure varies depending on the location of the chargers. Some even charge not per kWh, but per minute of charge. However, the average is estimated to be approximately 25 cents per kilowatt hour.
A more realistic scenario?
This is a considerable jump from the $0.07 originally quoted by Elon Musk, of course. But let’s not forget that the idea behind the Tesla Semi’s Superchargers would be to offer fast charging points that we could take advantage of at rest areas. So beyond cost, the closest thing there is to fast-charging a Tesla right now is a… Supercharger. Later, when the chargers dedicated to electric trucks are operational, it is possible that subsidies or special tariffs will be planned to make charging cheaper, but for now there are no further details.
Given the new price of $0.25 per kWh, the 400 kWh needed to drive 200 miles with a Tesla Semi would cost $100. That’s a lot more than the original example’s $28, but still a lot less than the $169.76 for the diesel truck.
With that in mind, Tesla’s electric truck could be 41% cheaper than its diesel counterpart. This is not a brutal percentage like the one obtained with the original example (83%), but it can be a bit more realistic. However, there are nuances the costs and consumption of freight transport can vary depending on what is transported, its weight, road conditions and weather conditions. Therefore, until the Tesla Semi is on the roads of the United States and other countries, we will not have really precise data. And we’ll have to wait a little longer for that…