The king of cryptos at the crossroads! – As I feared, September is not off to a good start. This confirms at time T that this is a traditionally inglorious month for risky asset classes. And even less during the bear run as was the case for Bitcoin (BTC) in 2014 and 2018. It would seem that 2022 will not escape this fatality although all hopes are still allowed.
Moreover, the gains from its technical rebound since mid-June have evaporated in the space of two weeks. History that sellers make it a point of honor that the bear run of BTC prices since its last ATH in November 2021 is ready to restart. Like it or not, the lackluster backdrop in financial markets would be more likely to tip the wrong side of the fence. To the point that the king of cryptos could lose big.
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Bitcoin in monthly units – Back to the harsh reality of the bear run!
July was full of promise. But unfortunately, the second half of August turned out to be fatal. It is from prices close to its lows of the year that Bitcoin starts the month of September reputed to be the worst performing in several decades. Let’s be honest! The king of cryptos is somehow up against the wall.
The last monthly closing (in August) is not reassuring. Because precisely, it almost encompasses that of July. From now on, the $20,000 support, which had held up well, could finally give way. And with a FED determined to continue its monetary tightening, the sellers would find themselves in a strong position to deal the ultimate blow of the bear run.
In the meantime, investors shouldn’t worry too much about the supposedly healthy prices relative to the Ichimoku. On the one hand, the Chikou Span although above the Kumo (cloud), would bog down below BTC prices in the coming months except reassembled exceptional. And on the other hand, the bearish crossover between the Tenkan and the Kijun against the first, would possibly constitute a counterweight to a return to a bullish cycle. With the fear that the king of cryptos could spend 2023 as a year of transition or stagnation after the end of his yet to be defined bear run.
Bitcoin in weekly units
Subject to a close above $19,557, Bitcoin could escape the three-way pass into the bright red. However, prices fail to move up the slope in order to move away from the break of the support at $20,000. This threat is becoming persistent. Especially since sellers are beginning to test this critical level. For the moment, there is no fire at the lake. But we will have to expect aftershocks, hoping that this weekend does not end in the worst possible way.
For now, I see that nothing has really changed regarding the price position of BTC and Chikou Span against Kumo since last May. Hence my justified pessimism about a possible reversal of the bear run. Even a crossing of the descending line would not allow it to be considered given the price deviation from the weekly Kijun and the significant thickness of the future Kumo. Which would still keep the Chikou Span under the cloud.
The best case scenario we could hope for would be to quickly regain summer highs around the $26,000 resistance. In condition sine qua non to iron over the weekly Tenkan. Otherwise, sellers would bury the last hopes of buyers by pushing Bitcoin prices towards the $12,000 support.
Bitcoin in Daily Units – Last Chance Throwback on $20,000?
Now that Bitcoin has reached the final target of the rising wedge, the sellers are tempering while waiting for catalysts likely to drive the point home definitively towards $12,000. So much so that the triple bottom traced during the previous market points no longer holds water. Now prices are simultaneously below the Tenkan and the Kumo. Fortunately, they are preserving the $20,000 support as we speak. Which would potentially offer a last chance throwback.
If this favorable technical signal were to materialize in daily units, BTC prices would cross the Tenkan in the first instance. But in an effort to stop the bleeding of the past two weeks, a price move past the Kumo would be vital as prices could favorably threaten the descending line and resistance at $26,000. This would be consistent with a return of the Chikou Span inside the cloud.
While this is my personal belief, we are closer to resuming Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021. Not only is continued FED monetary tightening not helping risk appetite. But to make matters worse, the renewed intensity of the current uncertainties on the financial markets could once again throw oil under fire on the asset classes most sensitive to liquidity, and more particularly cryptocurrencies.
What matters most to me is to analyze the price structure, especially over long time units. And it is clear that the weekly chart would seem to me more instructive than the one in monthly units. Because without the presence of first-rate catalysts, the prices of the king of cryptos would have all the trouble in the world to cross the significant thickness of the Kumo projected in the first quarter of 2023. Enough to be chomping at the bit for a new bull run.
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