Are we going to permanently save the $20,000 support? – Despite inflation in the United States which broke a new historical record since the end of 1981 in June, Bitcoin (BTC) is still holding up around the $20,000 support. And this is rather good news considering the flood of bad news, whether endogenous or exogenous to the cryptocurrency industry.
Indeed, the bear run since its last ATH in November 2021 could finally experience a timely respite. This could finally fuel the technical rebound of the king of cryptos long awaited by many investors. However, it would take a combination of favorable circumstances to consider this scenario of calm after a deadly spring.
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Bitcoin in weekly units – The yoyo around $20,000 continues
It’s been a little over a month since Bitcoin prices are hovering around the critical $20,000 support. Is this the harbinger of the current bear run running out of steam? It is still too early to tell. Because precisely, this week’s candle remains hesitant for the moment with the presence of a doji. This would suggest that buyers and sellers are neutralizing each other while waiting for real catalysts who could settle the situation.
Besides, the status quo regarding the price positioning of BTC and the Chikou Span against the Kumo (Ichimoku cloud) shows noticeable apathy week after week. That being said, there are some encouraging technical signals such as the good performance of the Chikou on the support of $20,000, the rapprochement between the Tenkan and the prices, or even the beginning of stability of the Kijun near the resistance of 35,000. $.
In any case, it looks like the second wave of correction since last breaking below the $46,000 resistance in early April may have reached the finish line. Enough to aim for a technical rebound which would probably mark a break in Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in 2021.
Bitcoin in daily units – Hope for a validation of a triple bottom
If the last weekly candles have been boring since mid-June, a triple bottom would begin to take shape in daily units. Especially since Bitcoin prices are said to be poised to tame Tenkan and Kijun simultaneously. And if the crossing of the two curves of the Ichimoku were to be accompanied by the validation of the bullish chartist figure, in other words that the resistance of $26,000 would reach out. And why not better! Indeed, the prices of the king of cryptos would return inside the Kumo.
Assuming a breakout above $26,000, the technical rebound would gain height towards the resistance of $30,000, one of the key levels of the last bull run. At the same time, Bitcoin could possibly approach the descending line of the current bear run. However, cryptocurrency investors better not get fired up. Because even in this configuration, the Chikou Span would still remain below the Kumo.
As we discussed last week, the short-term resilience around the $20,000 support is fueling hope for a temporary halt in Bitcoin’s bear run since its last ATH in November 2021. In contrast, it would no longer be a question of double bottom, but of triple bottom to be validated in order to witness a large-scale technical rebound.
Does it still need to be helped by a decline in the US dollar against the other major currencies? It will not have escaped your notice that the euro has slipped furtively below parity with Uncle Sam’s currency. Not only is a very robust US dollar historically unfavorable for risky asset classes. But that wouldn’t help a return to risk appetite. In which case, Bitcoin would not be able to get out of the $20,000 support permanently.
If the triple bottom fails, two options would be available to us: either a return to the status quo of the last few weeks with the added bonus of the formation of a horizontal channel, or the breakout of $20,000 which would lead the king of cryptos straight towards the $12,000 support.
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