We are early – Blockware Solutions specializes in blockchain infrastructure and cryptocurrency mining. In a recent report, the research department first looked at theoretical and historical models of mass adoption. He then attempted to place Bitcoin (BTC) on this curve and provides a “conceptual framework” for making predictions about Bitcoin’s growth metrics. According to its estimates, Blockware envisions 10% global Bitcoin adoption around 2030.
Before Bitcoin, Theory and History of Adoption Curves
The first point to note is the notion of cycles. Technologies and innovations follow one another, but sociological dynamics repeat themselves, human nature remains the same. This adoption curve theorized in 1962 is divided into several categories of adopters, from pioneers to laggards. Every successful innovation goes through the same stages of scorn and rejection before instilling fear in the losers of the innovation, and finally being adopted by the market.
Bitcoin has inalienable but above all unalterable qualities that offer it resilience and a gigantic market: the security of online exchanges. Whether they are monetary or not, even if the main virtue of Bitcoin is to transfer value in an uncensorable way, without an intermediary.
Blockware has previously studied 9 disruptive technologies, ranging from electricity to the mobile tablet. For each of these technologies an adoption ratio was established in order to be able to compare relatively comparable data.
All things considered, there is a familiar pattern for each adoption curve. A genesis with a slow growth before a parabolic phase then a possible plateau which looks more like a false flat of the Tour de France.
Each parabolic phase listed on the graph occurred after a 10% adoption rate.
The main observation here reveals that Internet-related technologies lead to the most aggressive adoption phases. Bitcoin being a reliable and decentralized monetary network, it presents itself as a legitimate successor to all these technologies which are now part of the daily life of the majority of the planet.
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Bitcoin has a play
And this one will probably play out in three acts: slow adoption, parabolic phase, then slow and steady progression of adoption. Most often is “possibly. But Blockware has little doubt about this and makes a key point in its report.
Looking at the growth of new entities (one entity = one address), the Bitcoin network has hosted over 250 million entities. Of course, cycles and volatility have scared off many of these entities. They must therefore be excluded from the calculation.
The Net Entity Growth metric takes into account the wallets dropped to zero. The cumulative sum of net entity growth is well below the total number of entities. According to this calculation, there would currently be 30 million unique users on the cryptonet.
So far from any mass adoption with nearly 0.4% of the population currently owning satoshis.
By weighting the previous innovations listed above and taking into account the historical growth of Bitcoin, Blockware has developed a forecast chart of the rate of adoption going forward. Fasten your seatbelts.
The model speaks for itself and will immediately delight bitcoiners and other satochists, no need to add more. If the future were like this, it would announce good years to come for the pioneers.
After a first decade of existence, the adolescence promises to be turbulent for Bitcoin. Between regulations and lack of global pedagogy on the subject, mass adoption will not be a long calm river. Blockware’s predictions are optimistic but let’s be clear there is little chance that they will come true. Adoption will be slower. Or faster. But very unlikely “as expected”. The report does not fail to quote the statistician George Box in the preamble to its conclusion: “all the models are wrong, but some are useful. »
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